Precision estimates and suggested sample sizes for length-frequency data

For most fisheries applications, the shape of a length-frequency distribution is much more important than its mean length or variance. This makes it difficult to evaluate at which point a sample size is adequate. By estimating the coefficient of variation of the counts in each length class and taking a weighted mean of these, a measure of precision was obtained that takes the precision in all length classes into account. The precision estimates were closely associated with the ratio of the sample size to the number of size classes in each sample. As a rule-of-thumb, a minimum sample size of 10 times the number of length classes in the sample is suggested because the precision deteriorates rapidly for smaller sample sizes. In absence of such a rule-of-thumb, samplers have previously under-estimated the required sample size for samples with large fish, while over-sampling small fish of the same species.

Mussel Community Studies [Year One].

Mytilus californianus communities (mussel beds) were examined from six geographic localities in Southern California. These included two mainland sites, Coal Oil Point and San Diego; and four island sites, San Miguel, Santa Cruz, San Nicholas, and Santa Barbara Islands. Optimal sample sizes were determined for each locality. In general, a sample, size of 1500 cm2 (five cores) was optimal for the "typical" mussel bed. However, structurally unique mussel beds required individual consideration. Community biomass, diversity, species richness, and species evenness were calculated quarterly for the island localities and biannually for mainland locations. The molluscs, primarily the mussels, accounted for 90% of the total biomass while all other groups combined accounted for 10% or less of the total biomass. The mussel communities from all localities contributed to the master species list which conservatively contained 346 species. The most diverse localities were Coal Oil Point and Santa Cruz Island with an average number of 73 and 74 species/O.lS m respectively. No overall seasonal patterns existed in community composition. The community similarity analyses showed the mainland localities biotically dissimilar from the islands and both groups were characterized by distinct faunal assemblages. In addition, San Miguel Island biota were unique among the island sites. The most important mussel bed structural attributes provided habitats for the associated community and included sediment and coarse fraction features. Food-related resources provided by the mussel bed were secondarily important. Community diversity generally increased with the quantity of habitat and food resources. (PDF contains 138 pages)

Mussel Community Studies [Year Two].

The communities associated with Mytilus californianus (mussel) beds from eleven geographic localities in Southern California were examined. The localities included four mainland sites - Government Point, Goleta Point, Corona del Mar and San Diego; and seven offshore islands including - San Miguel Island, Santa Rosa Island, Santa Cruz Island, Santa Barbara Island, Santa Catalina Island, San Nicholas Island and San Clemente Island. This geographic coverage. was much more complete than the previous year (1975-1976 program). However, it is still less than ideal. In particular a single island collection locality may not be representative of an entire island. Therefore greater geographic coverage of the islands is recommended for the future. In general, the 1500 cm2 sample size adopted during the 1975-1976 program proved adequate for sampling most of the structurally diverse mussel beds this year. This sample size supplied information on the characteristic and abundant species inhabiting a particular mussel bed, and provided data which was well suited to intersite community comparisons. This sample size was too small in several instances to include the rarer, less abundant species. The mussel communities from all localities contributed to the master species list which contained conservatively 481 species of animals and 63 specie s of algae. The most diverse collections came from Santa Cruz Island and Corona del Mar, and these areas contained 120 and 119 species respectively. The lowest diversity was recorded for the mussel beds from Goleta Point: which contained 57 species. Mussel community samples were collected from upper and lower intertidal areas occupied by the mussel beds within a locality. In general, community differences both in composition and abundance were associated with these collections. (PDF contains 158 pages)

Abundance and distribution patters of Hawaiian odontocetes: focus on O'ahu

This dissertation is an assessment of the status of odontocetes in Hawaiian waters focussing on O´ahu. The work builds on available literature, and on data collected by the author and by others in Hawaiian waters. Abundance and distribution patterns of odontocetes were derived from stranding and aerial survey data. A stranding network operated by the National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Area Office collected 187 stranding reports throughout the main Hawaiian Islands between 1937 and 2002. These reports included 16 odontocete species. Number of stranding reports increased over time and was highest on O´ahu. Strandings occurred throughout the year. The difference in number of strandings per month was not significant. Fifteen of the 16 species reported in the stranding record for the main Hawaiian Islands were also reported by aerial survey studies of the area between 1993 and 1998. Only 7 of the species reported were detected during aerial transects around O′ahu between 1998 and 2000. Based on the stranding record, Kogia sp., melon-headed whales, striped dolphins and dwarf killer whale appear to be more common than suggested by aerial surveys. Conversely, pilot whales and bottlenose dolphins were more common, according to aerial surveys, than predicted by the stranding data. Aerial surveys of waters between 0 and 500m around the Island of O′ahu showed that the most abundant species by frequency of occurrence was the pilot whale (30% of sightings), followed by the spinner (16%) and bottlenose dolphin (14%). Because of small sample size, abundance estimates for odontocetes have a high level of uncertainty. The unavailability of a correction factor for g(0)<1, and the reduced visibility below the aircraft further reduced accuracy and increased the inherent underestimation in the data. The most abundant species according to distance sampling estimates were spotted dolphins, pilot whales, false killer whales and spinner dolphins. A natural factor shaping the ecology of odontocete populations is predation pressure both by other odontocetes and, more frequently, by sharks. An account of predation by a tiger shark on a spotted dolphin near Penguin Banks is used as an example of the potential mechanisms of predation by sharks on odontocetes.

A histopathologic evaluation of gross lesions excised from commercially important North Altantic marine fishes

Histopathologic studies of lesions found in commercially important North Atlantic marine fishes are uncommon. As part of a comprehensive Northeast Fisheries Center program ("Ocean Pulse") to evaluate environmental and resource health on the U.S. Continental Shelf from Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia, grossly visible lesions of the gills, integument, muscle, and viscera of primarily bottom-dwelling fishes were excised and examined using light microscopy. Several gadid and pleuronectid fishes accounted for most of the lesions observed. Most pathological examinations were incidental to samples taken for age and growth determination and evaluation of predator/prey relationships. Several gadids, with either gill, heart, or spleen lesions, were sampled more intensively. Gill lesions principally affected gadids and were caused by either microsporidans or an unidentified oocyte-like cell. The majority of gastrointestinal lesions consisted of encapsulated or encysted larval worms or microsporidan-induced cysts. Few heart lesions were found. Integumental lesioos included ulcers, lymphocystis, and trematode metacercariae. Liver lesions almost always consisted of encapsulated or encysted larval helminths. Necrotic granulomata were seen in muscle and microsporidan-induced granulomata in spleen. Although not numerous, histologically interesting lesions were noted in integument, heart, liver, spleen, and muscle of several fish species. Histologic study of tissues excised from a variety of demersal and pelagic fishes from the eastern North Atlantic (France, Germany, Spain) revealed assorted integumental, renal, hepatic, and splenic lesions. Small sample size and non-random sampling precluded obtaining a meaningful quantitative estimate of the prevalence of the observed lesions in the population at risk; however, a useful census has been made of the types of lesions present in commercially important marine fishes. (PDF file contains 20 pages.)

Diet and condition of American Alligators (Alligator mississippiensis)in three central Florida lakes

Understanding the diet of crocodilians is important because diet affects condition, behavior, growth, and reproduction. By examining the diet of crocodilians, valuable knowledge is gained about predator-prey interactions and prey utilization among habitats. In this study, I examined the diet and condition of adult American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in three central Florida lakes, Griffin, Apopka, and Woodruff. Two hundred adult alligators were captured and lavaged from March through October 2001, from April through October 2002, and from April through August 2003. Alligators ate a variety of vertebrate and invertebrate prey, but vertebrates were more abundant and fish dominated alligator diets in the lakes. Species composition of fish varied among the lakes. The majority of the diet of alligators from Lakes Apopka and Woodruff was fish, 90% and 84% respectively. Lake Apopka alligators consumed a significantly (P = 0.006) higher proportion of fish in their diet. Fish were 54% of the diet of Lake Griffin alligators and the infrequent occurrence of reptiles, mammals, birds, and amphibians often resulted in a large biomass. Differences in alligator diets among lakes may be due to differences in sample size (higher numbers of samples from Lake Griffin), prey availability, habitat, prey vulnerability, or prey size. Alligator condition (Fulton’s Condition Factor, K) was significantly (P < 0.001) different among the lakes. Alligators from Lake Apopka had the highest condition, followed by those from Lake Griffin, and alligators from Lake Woodruff had the lowest condition. Composition of fish along with diversity and equitability of fish in alligator diets may have contributed to differences in condition among lakes. Condition was probably also due to factors other than diet such as alligator hunting behavior, alligator density, or year-round optimal temperature that prolongs feeding. The observed diet and condition differences probably reflect both habitat differences and prey availability in these three lakes.

Genetic variation between outer-coastal and fjord populations of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) in the eastern Gulf of Alaska

Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) from the Gulf of Alaska were screened for temporal and spatial genetic variation with 15 microsatellite loci. Thirteen collections were examined in this study: 11 from Southeast Alaska and 2 from Prince William Sound, Alaska. Although FST values were low, a neighbor-joining tree based on genetic distance, homogeneity, and FST values revealed that collectively, the Berners Bay and Lynn Canal (interior) collections were genetically distinct from Sitka Sound and Prince of Wales Island (outer-coastal) collections. Temporal genetic variation within regions (among three years of Berners Bay spawners and between the two Sitka Sound spawners) was zero, whereas 0.05% was attributable to genetic variation between Berners Bay and Sitka Sound. This divergence may be attributable to environmental differences between interior archipelago waters and outer-coast habitats, such as differences in temperature and salinity. Early spring collections of nonspawning Lynn Canal herring were nearly genetically identical to collections of spawning herring in Berners Bay two months later—an indication that Berners Bay spawners over-winter in Lynn Canal. Southeast Alaskan herring (collectively) were significantly different from those in Prince William Sound. This study illustrates that adequate sample size is needed to detect variation in pelagic fish species with a large effective population size, and microsatellite markers may be useful in detecting low-level genetic divergence in Pacific herring in the Gulf of Alaska.

Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Age validation of great hammerhead shark (Sphyrna mokarran), determined by bomb radiocarbon analysis

Preliminary validation of annual growth band deposition in vertebrae of great hammerhead shark (Sphyrna mokarran) was conducted by using bomb radiocarbon analysis. Adult specimens (n=2) were collected and thin sections of vertebral centra were removed for visual aging and use in radiocarbon assays. Vertebral band counts were used to estimate age, and year of formation was assigned to each growth band by subtracting estimated age from the year of capture. A total of 10 samples were extracted from growth bands and analyzed for Δ14C. Calculated Δ14C values from dated bands were compared to known-age reference chronologies, and the resulting patterns indicated annual periodicity of growth bands up to a minimum age of 42 years. Trends in Δ14C across time in individual specimens indicated that vertebral radiocarbon is conserved through time but that habitat and diet may inf luence Δ14C levels in elasmobranchs. Although the age validation reported here must be considered preliminary because of the small sample size and narrow age range of individuals sampled, it represents the first confirmation of age in S. mokarran, further illustrating the usefulness of bomb radiocarbon analysis as a tool for life history studies in elasmobranchs.

Length-weight relationship of marine fishes from southern Brazil

The relationship between length (L) and weight (W) was estimated for 80 species belonging to 50 families of marine fishes from the shelf and upper slope of southern Brazil (lat. 28°S - 34°S). Sample sizes (n) for different species ranged from 11 to 14 741 specimens collected from commercial landings and research surveys. The fit of the equations (W=aLb) with a and b parameters estimated from regular and functional regression (of log-transformed weight and length data) as well as from a non-linear iterative process using the quasi-Newton algorithm were compared. The non-linear method gave the most accurate estimates in terms of residual sum of squares. Differences were less than 2.3% for n>500 compared with predictive regressions and 1.5% compared with functional regressions. No difference was observed between both predictive and functional regressions. Determination coefficients (r2) increased with sample size, and the highest r2 were obtained for 50samples due to seasonal changes in the condition of the fishes.

Using poststratification to improve abundance estimates from multispecies surveys: a study of juvenile flatfishes

Population assessments seldom incorporate habitat information or use previously observed distributions of fish density. Because habitat affects the spatial distribution of fish density and overall abundance, the use of habitat information and previous estimates of fish density can produce more precise and less biased population estimates. In this study, we describe how poststratification can be applied as an unbiased estimator to data sets that were collected under a probability sampling design, typical of many multispecies trawl surveys. With data from a multispecies survey of juvenile flatfish, we show how poststratification can be applied to a data set that was not collected under a probability sampling design, where both the precision and the bias are unknown. For each of four species, three estimates of total abundance were compared: 1) unstratified; 2) poststratified by habitat; and 3) poststratified by habitat and fish density (high fish density and low fish density) in nearby years. Poststratification by habitat gave more precise and (or) less design-biased estimates than an unstratified estimator for all species in all years. Poststratification by habitat and fish density produced the most precise and representative estimates when the sample size in the high fish-density and low fish-density strata were sufficient (in this study, n≥20 in the high fish-density stratum, n≥9 in the low fish-density stratum). Because of the complexities of statistically testing the annual stratified data, we compared three indices of abundance for determining statistically significant changes in annual abundance. Each of the indices closely approximated the annual differences of the poststratified estimates. Selection of the most appropriate index was dependent upon the species’ density distribution within habitat and the sample size in the different habitat areas. The methods used in this study are particularly useful for estimating individual species abundance from multispecies surveys and for retrospective st

Temporal trends in reef fish assemblages inside Virgin Islands National Park and around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, 1988-2006

This report is a result of long-term fish monitoring studies supported by the National Park Service (NPS) at the Virgin Islands National Park since 1988 and is now a joint NPS and NOAA collaboration. Reef fish monitoring data collected from 1988 to 2006 within Virgin Islands National Park (VINP) and adjacent reefs around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) were analyzed to provide information on the status of reef fishes during the monitoring period. Monitoring projects were initiated by the National Park Service (NPS) in the 1980s to provide useful data for evaluation of resources and for development of a long-term monitoring program. Monthly monitoring was conducted at two reef sites (Yawzi Point and Cocoloba Cay) starting in November 1988 for 2.5 years to document the monthly/seasonal variability in reef fish assemblages. Hurricane Hugo (a powerful Category 4 storm) struck the USVI in September 1989 resulting in considerable damage to the reefs around St. John. Abundance of fishes was lower at both sites following the storm, however, a greater effect was observed at Yawzi Point, which experienced a more direct impact from the hurricane. The storm affected species differently, with some showing only small, short-term declines in abundance, and others, such as the numerically abundant blue chromis (Chromis cyanea), a planktivorous damselfish, exhibiting a larger and longer recovery period. This report provides: 1) an evaluation of sampling methods, sample size, and methods used during the sampling period, 2) an evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in reef fish assemblages at selected reef sites inside and outside of VINP, and 3) an evaluation of trends over 17 years of monitoring at the four reference sites. Comparisons of methods were conducted to standardize assessments among years. Several methods were used to evaluate sample size requirements for reef fish monitoring and the results provided a statistically robust justification for sample allocation.

Estimation of bycatch in shrimp trawl fisheries: a comparison of estimation methods using field data and simulated data

Bycatch, or the incidental catch of nontarget organisms during fi shing operations, is a major issue in U.S. shrimp trawl fisheries. Because bycatch is typically discarded at sea, total bycatch is usually estimated by extrapolating from an observed bycatch sample to the entire fleet with either mean-per-unit or ratio estimators. Using both field observations of commercial shrimp trawlers and computer simulations, I compared five methods for generating bycatch estimates that were used in past studies, a mean-per-unit estimator and four forms of the ratio estimator, respectively: 1) the mean fish catch per unit of effort, where unit effort was a proxy for sample size, 2) the mean of the individual fish to shrimp ratios, 3) the ratio of mean fish catch to mean shrimp catch, 4) the mean of the ratios of fish catch per time fished (a variable measure of effort), and 5) the ratio of mean fish catch per mean time fished. For field data, different methods used to estimate bycatch of Atlantic croaker, spot, and weakfish yielded extremely different results, with no discernible pattern in the estimates by method, geographic region, or species. Simulated fishing fleets were used to compare bycatch estimated by the fi ve methods with “actual” (simulated) bycatch. Simulations were conducted by using both normal and delta lognormal distributions of fish and shrimp and employed a range of values for several parameters, including mean catches of fish and shrimp, variability in the catches of fish and shrimp, variability in fishing effort, number of observations, and correlations between fish and shrimp catches. Results indicated that only the mean per unit estimators provided statistically unbiased estimates, while all other methods overestimated bycatch. The mean of the individual fish to shrimp ratios, the method used in the South Atlantic Bight before the 1990s, gave the most biased estimates. Because of the statistically significant two- and 3-way interactions among parameters, it is unlikely that estimates generated by one method can be converted or corrected to estimates made by another method: therefore bycatch estimates obtained with different methods should not be compared directly.

Demersal groundfish densities in trawlable and untrawlable habitats off Washington: implications for the estimation of habitat bias in trawl surveys

Demersal groundfish densities were estimated by conducting a visual strip-transect survey via manned submersible on the continental shelf off Cape Flattery, Washington. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the statistical sampling power of the submersible survey as a tool to discriminate density differences between trawlable and untrawlable habitats. A geophysical map of the study area was prepared with side-scan sonar imagery, multibeam bathymetry data, and known locations of historical NMFS trawl survey events. Submersible transects were completed at randomly selected dive sites located in each habitat type. Significant differences in density between habitats were observed for lingcod (Ophiodon elongatus), yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus), and tiger rockfish (S. nigrocinctus) individually, and for “all rockfish” and “all flatfish” in the aggregate. Flatfish were more than ten times as abundant in the trawlable habitat samples than in the untrawlable samples, whereas rockfish as a group were over three times as abundant in the untrawlable habitat samples. Guidelines for sample sizes and implications for the estimation of the continental shelf trawl-survey habitat-bias are considered. We demonstrate an approach that can be used to establish sample size guidelines for future work by illustrating the interplay between statistical sampling power and 1) habitat specific-density differences, 2) variance of density differences, and 3) the proportion of untrawlable area in a habitat.

Assessing the precision of frequency distributions estimated from trawl-survey samples

In trawl surveys a cluster of fish are caught at each station, and fish caught together tend to have more similar characteristics, such as length, age, stomach contents etc., than those in the entire population. When this is the case, the effective sample size for estimates of the frequency distribution of a population characteristic can, therefore, be much smaller than the number of fish sampled during a survey. As examples, it is shown that the effective sample size for estimates of length-frequency distributions generated by trawl surveys conducted in the Barents Sea, off Namibia, and off South Africa is on average approximately one fish per tow. Thus many more fish than necessary are measured at each station (location). One way to increase the effective sample size for these surveys and, hence, increase the precision of the length-frequency estimates, is to reduce tow duration and use the time saved to collect samples at more stations.